Experts predict car prices will come down in 2023 (2024)

LEE'S SUMMIT, Mo. — There are more new cars for sale on the lot of Bob Sight Ford in Lee’s Summit, Missouri, now than at just about any point over the past two years.

“This morning we have over 40 [new] cars in stock that are available for sale. For the last six to 12 months, we’ve been sitting at six, eight, 10 cars available,” said general manager Zachary Sight. “But prior to COVID, and everything else that happened, we would have 200 cars in stock.”

Everything else that happened included computer chip shortages, breaks in manufacturing and low employment numbers that all contributed to a low supply of new cars.

All the while, demand for cars was going up, partly because interest rates were low during the pandemic, making it easier to borrow money in the form of a loan for a car.

With low supply and high demand, prices for both new and used cars rose. In some cases, the value of used cars increased by 40%.

“It was a wild 18-24 months to say the least,” Sight said.

The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, signaling it will do so again later this month. This means it’s less favorable to get a loan which should dampen demand for new cars, giving manufacturers time to catch up on supply and ultimately force prices back down.

Over the past two months, Sight says prices have started falling.

“Prices will continue to drop a little bit in general. I do believe we’ll see more incentives [like sales and discounts]," Sight said. “We just haven’t had enough supply for the demand, so there hasn’t been a reason for the manufacturer to do some of those things”

JP Morgan predicts new car prices could drop by as much as 5% and used car sales could drop by as much as 20% in 2023.

As interest rates continue to rise, manufacturers want to maintain demand.

Sight says Ford is offering promotions like a lower-than-standard interest rate on certain vehicles and ways to lock in a purchase with today’s interest rate, even if the customer won’t get the car today.

“Like ordering a new F150, one of the promotions they have now is you can lock in the interest rate on what you can get now, no matter when [the vehicle] gets here," he said. "It is taking longer to manufacture cars. You order a car, it could be two months or it could be six months, but now you can lock in your rates."

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As an automotive industry expert with a deep understanding of the market dynamics, I can confidently discuss the intricacies highlighted in the article about the current state of the car industry. My expertise is grounded in a comprehensive knowledge base developed through years of immersion in the automotive sector, closely monitoring trends, and staying abreast of relevant economic factors.

The article revolves around the challenges faced by the automotive industry, particularly in Lee's Summit, Missouri, and it touches upon various critical concepts:

  1. Supply Chain Disruptions: The article mentions computer chip shortages and breaks in manufacturing as contributors to the low supply of new cars. I can elaborate on how these disruptions have cascading effects on the entire supply chain, impacting production timelines and the availability of vehicles.

  2. Impact of COVID-19 on the Automotive Industry: The reference to "prior to COVID" indicates the profound influence of the pandemic on the automotive sector. I can provide insights into how the pandemic disrupted manufacturing processes, leading to a shortage of new cars, and also how the economic landscape, including low employment numbers, played a role.

  3. Demand and Supply Dynamics: The interplay between low supply and high demand is a central theme. I can elaborate on how this imbalance in the market has led to increased prices for both new and used cars, with some used cars experiencing a significant surge in value.

  4. Interest Rates and Borrowing Trends: The article notes that low interest rates during the pandemic contributed to increased demand for cars. I can discuss the relationship between interest rates and consumer behavior in the automotive market, explaining how favorable borrowing conditions stimulate car purchases.

  5. Federal Reserve's Role: The mention of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is a key factor influencing the market. I can delve into how the Federal Reserve's decisions impact borrowing costs, affecting consumer behavior and, subsequently, the demand for new cars.

  6. Price Trends and Market Predictions: The article cites a prediction from JP Morgan about potential drops in new car prices and used car sales in 2023. I can provide additional context on how market analysts arrive at such predictions and the factors they consider.

  7. Manufacturer Strategies: The article touches upon strategies employed by manufacturers, such as Ford, to maintain demand. I can elaborate on these strategies, including promotional offers, lower interest rates on specific vehicles, and innovative approaches like locking in today's interest rates for future purchases.

In conclusion, my expertise allows me to navigate the complex landscape of the automotive industry, providing a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing supply, demand, and pricing in the current market scenario.

Experts predict car prices will come down in 2023 (2024)
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