Global Commodity Markets - Price Volatility and Financialisa (2024)

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Abstract

A significant increase in the level and volatility of many commodity prices over the past decade has led to a debate about what has driven these developments. A particular focus has been on the extent to which they have been driven by increased financial investment in commodity derivatives markets. This article examines the factors behind the increase in the level and volatility of commodity prices. The available evidence suggests that while financial investors can affect the short-run price dynamics for some commodities, the level and volatility of commodity prices appear to be primarily determined by fundamental factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandra Dwyer & George Gardner & Thomas Williams, 2011."Global Commodity Markets - Price Volatility and Financialisation,"RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 49-58, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbabul:jun2011-07

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity; Commodities; Commodity prices; Commodity price; volatility; Speculation; Oil prices; Financialisation; Financialization; G-20; G20; CRB; Derivatives;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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    Global Commodity Markets - Price Volatility and Financialisa (2024)

    FAQs

    Global Commodity Markets - Price Volatility and Financialisa? ›

    Financial markets provide a useful complement to physical commodity markets because they allow consumers and producers to hedge their exposures to movements in commodity prices. These markets exist precisely because prices can be volatile, and allow uncertainty about future price movements to be managed.

    Is the commodity market volatile? ›

    Commodities can and have offered superior returns, but they still are one of the more volatile asset classes available. They carry a higher standard deviation (or risk) than most other equity investments.

    What are the factors affecting commodity price volatility? ›

    Supply and demand are the primary drivers of commodity prices. When demand for a commodity exceeds supply, prices will generally rise, and when supply exceeds demand, prices will generally fall.

    What is the most volatile commodity in the world? ›

    Among the most volatile commodities, energy sources like crude oil and natural gas stand out. Their prices can be highly sensitive to geopolitical events, changes in regulatory policies, technological advancements, and shifts in supply and demand.

    What is volatility in global commodity prices? ›

    Commodity price volatility is a key source of socioeconomic volatility and stress in these country groups. The volatility of prices for commodities such as food, fuels and fertilizers directly and immediately impacts government policies, businesses and consumers.

    Which market is extremely volatile? ›

    Commodities. Commodities are typically more volatile than currency and equity markets due to the lower levels of liquidity or trading volume than other asset classes, as well as the constant exposure to weather events and other production issues that might affect supply and demand.

    Why is commodity market risky? ›

    Commodities are considered risky investments because the supply and demand of these products are affected by events that are difficult to predict, such as weather, epidemics, and natural and human-made disasters.

    What are the 5 factors that affect the supply of commodities to the market? ›

    Factors affecting supply include price of goods, price of related goods, production conditions, future expectations, input costs, number of suppliers, and government policy.

    Is there a volatility index for commodities? ›

    A common way to calculate such a volatility index from daily average prices of commodities is to take the logarithmical differences of the daily average prices of two consecutive trading days, and then to compute the relative standard deviation for a given period of time (e.g.: 30 days) from these figures.

    What is the richest commodity in the world? ›

    What About Crude Oil? Crude oil is by far the biggest commodity market, and oil prices were the talk of the town for much of 2022.

    Which commodity is highest traded globally? ›

    Crude oil is the most traded commodity in the world. This commodity is desirable to long and short-term traders because of its high volatility in price. The fluctuations in price make this commodity a lucrative asset if traded successfully.

    Is coffee a volatile commodity? ›

    Volatility in arabica coffee futures is soaring as rapidly shifting weather in top grower Brazil and a focus on depleted stockpiles drives sharp price swings for the high-end beans. The most-active futures contract rose as much as 4.1% in intraday trading Monday, rebounding after two days of declines.

    What are the economic drivers of commodity market volatility? ›

    Variables associated with credit risk, financial market stress, and fluctuations in business conditions bear significant predictive ability for commodity market volatility.

    What causes volatility in commodities? ›

    Commodity markets have, at various times, exhibited significant price volatility. The combination of inelastic demand and supply in many commodities means that, at least in the short term, unanticipated changes in demand or supply can generate large price swings.

    What is the relationship between inflation and commodity prices? ›

    Typically, changes in commodity prices can drive inflation trends. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, commodities make up close to 36% of the Consumer Price Index, the most commonly watched inflation measure.

    Are commodities more volatile than crypto? ›

    At the moment crypto currencies are the most volatile commodity. These are not considered currencies by the SEC but mining and thus fall under the category of commodities such as gold, silver, and other mined metals and minerals.

    Is the gold market volatile? ›

    Although the metal has proven its capacity to maintain its value over time, the price of gold is often volatile over the short term.

    What is considered a volatile market? ›

    Volatility is an investment term that describes when a market or security experiences periods of unpredictable, and sometimes sharp, price movements. People often think about volatility only when prices fall, however volatility can also refer to sudden price rises too.

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