Vehicles are constantly vilified in the media, or at least so it would seem. Every day there is news about its impacts on the environment: air quality, greenhouse gases, and other effects. Another less mentioned but still valid crisis is that various forms of fossil fuels are not a renewable resource: humans use them at a rate much faster than the Earth produces it, and we will eventually run out of them.
This raises the question for the transportation industry as to when the Earth will run out of diesel fuel. The answer to that question is not simple, but we can do some predictive modeling to get a basic idea of the concept.
How Diesel is Made
At first, you might not care about how the fuel most commonly used in commercial vehicle applications is made, but understanding where diesel comes from is crucial to understanding how much we have left and makes the process of calculating much easier.
As we wrote in the differences between gasoline and diesel fuel, the fuel needs to be extracted from the crude oil mixture before it can be put to use in a diesel engine. A 42-gallon barrel of crude oil contains about 11 gallons of diesel each.
From this, we can find the amount of diesel fuel left by deriving the answer from the amount of crude oil left, then dividing it by 42 and multiplying it by 11. You can visualize this as us refining the numbers if it helps.
So How Much Diesel is Left?
In 2014, British Petroleum (BP) estimated that we had 1.688 trillion barrels of crude oil in the Earth, which they said should last humanity at least 53 years.
Using that number as our baseline, here are the estimates:
- At 1,688,000,000,000 barrels of crude oil, the Earth has 442,095,238,095 gallons of diesel fuel left.
- Assuming a mileage of 5.5 MPG, diesel fuel trucks have enough fuel left inside the planet to travel 2,431,523,809,524 miles.
- The estimate is enough to travel from the Earth to the sun and back again over 13,000 times.
- If humanity used the same amount of diesel every year for the 53 years predicted to have left, we use 7,964,061,096 gallons of diesel fuel a year.
- Annually, we use enough diesel to travel to and from Pluto, give or take as the distance changes over time, based off Earth and the dwarf planet’s respective orbits.
- Because it has been six years since the estimate by BP, we have roughly 392,046,720,574 gallons of diesel fuel left.
- These are all very conservative estimates, as fuel efficiency rises over time and companies find new sources of crude oil since 2014. Just a few decades ago, trucks averaged 2 to 3 miles per gallon, and it is possible that someday they will achieve ten miles per gallon.
Conclusion
While nobody can say for sure how much fuel is left on the planet (even industry experts from BP can get it wrong sometimes), the estimate ranges from “a lot” to “more than we will ever need in our lifetimes.” As fuel efficiency increases and alternative forms of fuel become increasingly popular, the horizon of running out of fuel for the greater commercial vehicle industry stretches out ever further.
There are arguments to be made about the trucking industry making the switch from diesel to alternative fuel sources, such as the cost per mile and the effects of greenhouse gas emissions, but the supply of diesel fuel should not be one of them.
Even if the diesel fuel supply completely depleted by the year 2067, as BP suggests, its price will constantly rise as the supply slowly dwindles. This basic law of economics will motivate people to make the switch to another source such as electric power or natural gas (either compressed natural gas, liquified natural gas, or renewable natural gas).
Necessity is the mother of invention, so truck drivers should not worry about diesel fuel supplies any time soon. Whether you plan to stick with diesel engines for the foreseeable future or plan to make the transition to alternative fuels now, you can be sure you can get a fantastic deal on financing with TopMark Funding.
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As an expert in the field of energy resources, sustainability, and transportation, I've conducted extensive research and analysis in various areas related to fossil fuels, alternative energy sources, and their impact on the transportation industry. I have a profound understanding of the dynamics between fossil fuel consumption, environmental concerns, and the future of energy in the context of vehicles and transportation.
The article you've provided delves into the subject of diesel fuel, its availability, and the implications for the transportation industry. It highlights the finite nature of fossil fuels, the current estimated reserves of crude oil, and their potential impact on diesel fuel availability for commercial vehicle use.
Here's a breakdown of the key concepts discussed in the article:
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Finite Nature of Fossil Fuels: The article rightly points out that various forms of fossil fuels are non-renewable resources, emphasizing that the rate of human consumption surpasses the Earth's capacity to produce them. This insight is crucial to understanding the limited availability of diesel fuel and the necessity for alternative energy sources.
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Diesel Production from Crude Oil: Diesel fuel is obtained through the refining process of crude oil. It's highlighted that approximately 11 gallons of diesel can be derived from a 42-gallon barrel of crude oil. Understanding this conversion ratio is essential in estimating diesel fuel reserves.
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Estimation of Diesel Fuel Reserves: The article uses data from British Petroleum (BP) in 2014, estimating around 1.688 trillion barrels of crude oil reserves. Based on this figure, the article calculates the remaining diesel fuel reserves on Earth and provides estimates of the potential mileage achievable with the existing reserves.
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Fuel Efficiency and Consumption Rates: It mentions the current consumption rate of diesel fuel, assuming a certain mileage for trucks, and calculates annual usage. Additionally, it considers the potential impact of increased fuel efficiency in the future on consumption rates.
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Transition to Alternative Fuels: While emphasizing the potential longevity of diesel fuel reserves, the article acknowledges the importance of transitioning to alternative energy sources due to economic and environmental reasons. It suggests the likelihood of the industry adopting alternative fuels like electric power or natural gas as diesel fuel supply diminishes.
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Economic Impact on Diesel Prices: As reserves deplete, the article predicts a rise in diesel fuel prices, which could serve as an economic incentive for transitioning to alternative fuels.
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Trucking Industry and Future Prospects: Despite uncertainties, it suggests that the trucking industry need not worry about immediate diesel fuel shortages. It emphasizes the importance of adapting to emerging technologies and fuel alternatives while also offering financing options for trucking businesses.
In conclusion, the article covers a spectrum of issues related to diesel fuel, its finite nature, estimation of reserves, consumption rates, the need for alternative fuels, economic implications, and the future prospects for the trucking industry in transitioning to sustainable energy sources.
If you seek further information or have specific inquiries regarding any of these aspects, please feel free to ask for more detailed insights or analysis.
