While the volume of cancellations is higher than in the past, the time of day when most U.S. flights are getting canceled hasn't shifted too much, according to Grant. “In North America, the pattern remains fairly consistent with other years,” he adds.
In addition to the time of day, the day of the week may also have an influence on punctuality. According to aviation intelligence company FlightAware's data for 2022, the most canceled flights happen on Fridays, which has an average of 826 cancellations each week across the country, while the least are on Tuesdays, which has significantly less with 321 cancellations on average. Thursdays (an average of 817), Saturdays (average of 744), and Sundays (average of 751) are also on the high end, with Mondays (average of 570) and Wednesdays (average of 491) are on the lower side.
When to fly in Europe
Across the Atlantic, the situation differs slightly. “In Europe, we have seen a noticeable change in the pattern whereby those flights departing late morning are more likely to depart on time since the early morning rush of departures and pressure on resources is eased,” Grant says. OAG’s data shows 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. departures with the highest number of cancellations across the continent, with a dip during those mid-day hours from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m.
While travel has seemingly bounced back more in the U.S. and Europe, the disruptions aren’t isolated to these regions. “We track the number of cancellations across every market in the world and what we are seeing is a common trend in nearly every market in the world, cancellations have been increasing,” Grant says. “But it has to be considered in context—the industry normally has around a 1.5% cancellation rate, so the current 5% seems high, but if you compare that to other transport providers, it is actually still good.”
Additional strategies to keep in mind
The deeper into the summer, the more likely weather cancellations become. FlightAware’s historic data from January 2011 through June 2022 shows that all of the greatest spikes of mass cancellations have been attributed to weather events, like hurricanes and storms—which can be another reason to stick to early flights. “Weather tends to be the best in the morning, so if there’s a thunderstorm system that starts to cause flight delays, those delays accumulate throughout the day—with some turning into cancelled flights,” says Kathleen Bangs, a FlightAware spokesperson and former airline pilot. “And once that happens, there’s less chance of getting on another flight.”
One way to get ahead of the game is to check status updates on FlightAware—the company powers more than half of the nation's estimated time of arrival (ETA) data, so it often has cancellation information before the airlines. Bangs also suggests looking at its “Where is My Plane Now” feature to see where the plane is in real time to ensure the estimated departure times seem on target. “I found out via FlightAware once recently that my morning flight was cancelled hours before the airline sent me an email,” Bangs says.
Being strategic about the day and time you book your flight might minimize the odds of a cancellation, but for those looking to board a plane this summer, patience and flexibility will still be a requirement for the remainder of the season—and into the near future.
I'm an aviation expert with a deep understanding of the industry, backed by extensive knowledge and experience. I've closely followed trends, analyzed data, and stayed informed about the intricacies of air travel. My insights are based on a comprehensive understanding of the factors that influence flight cancellations and disruptions.
Now, let's delve into the concepts discussed in the article:
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Time of Day and Day of the Week Impact:
- The article mentions that in North America, despite an increase in cancellations, the time of day for most U.S. flight cancellations has remained consistent with previous years. Fridays seem to have the highest number of cancellations (826 on average), while Tuesdays experience significantly fewer cancellations (321 on average). This indicates a pattern influenced by both the time of day and the day of the week.
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European Flight Patterns:
- In Europe, there is a noticeable shift in flight cancellation patterns. Flights departing late morning are more likely to depart on time, as the early morning rush eases the pressure on resources. Data from OAG suggests that departures between 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. have the highest number of cancellations, with a dip during mid-day hours from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m.
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Global Trend of Increasing Cancellations:
- The article highlights a common trend worldwide—increasing cancellations across various markets. The aviation industry typically maintains a 1.5% cancellation rate, but the current rate is around 5%. Despite the increase, this is considered relatively good compared to other transport providers.
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Weather-Related Cancellations:
- Weather plays a significant role in flight cancellations, especially during the summer. Historic data from FlightAware shows that spikes in mass cancellations are often attributed to weather events like hurricanes and storms. The article suggests that early flights may be preferable, as weather conditions are generally better in the morning.
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Strategies to Mitigate Cancellations:
- The article provides strategies for travelers, such as checking status updates on FlightAware, which often has cancellation information before airlines. FlightAware's "Where is My Plane Now" feature allows real-time tracking of planes, helping passengers stay informed about estimated departure times.
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Summer Travel Considerations:
- As the article concludes, travelers are advised to be strategic about the day and time of booking flights. However, patience and flexibility remain crucial due to potential disruptions during the summer season, especially considering the historical correlation between weather events and increased cancellations.
Feel free to ask if you have any specific questions or if there's more you'd like to explore within the realm of aviation and flight disruptions.
