Changing Used Car Price Trends Have Consumers Anxious about Sales, Trade-ins (2024)

According to J.D. Power, the average transaction price for a used vehicle at franchised dealerships in September 2022 was $31,025. September 2022’s average transaction price was roughly flat compared to August 2022 but represented an increase of 7.2% compared to September 2021.

Used vehicle retail transaction prices have significantly risen since the start of 2021, when those in the auto industry first became aware of a semiconductor microchip shortage. September 2022’s average transaction price was 30.3% higher than the average transaction price in January 2021. Limited new vehicle availability due to the chip shortage has pushed more buyers into the used vehicle market, which has pushed retail prices to their current levels. We expect that used vehicle retail prices and overall used vehicle demand will remain elevated until new vehicle production is normalized.

Higher used vehicle prices have also caused consumers’ monthly payments to rise. In September 2022, the average monthly payment for a used vehicle finance contract at franchised dealerships was $557, an increase of 0.8% compared to August 2022, and a rise of 9.4% compared to September 2021. Throughout 2022, consumers’ monthly payments have also been pushed higher due to rising interest rates.

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Changing Used Car Price Trends Have Consumers Anxious about Sales, Trade-ins (3)

In its efforts to rein in inflation, the Federal Reserve has increased the Fed Funds Rate rapidly throughout 2022. The Fed Funds rate has risen from a targeted range of 0% to 0.25% to a range of 3.75% to 4% in a little more than six months. This has increased interest rates throughout the economy, including auto loan rates. At the end of September 2022, the average rate for a used vehicle finance contract at franchised dealerships was 8.9%.

September 2022’s rate is the first time since the start of the pandemic that the average rate on a used vehicle finance contract has surpassed its pre-pandemic level. We expect that the Fed will hike rates higher in the coming months, which will place further upward pressure on consumers’ monthly payments.

Looking ahead, we expect that used vehicle retail prices will remain elevated until new vehicle production returns to a more normal level. We could see overall used vehicle retail prices fall somewhat following the trends seen in the used vehicle wholesale market. Wholesale used vehicle price levels declined for three months in a row, according to the J.D. Power Used Vehicle Price Index. Changes in used vehicle retail price levels typically lag wholesale prices by three to six months.

For more information on the used vehicle market, please see our post on November 2022’s used vehicle wholesale market trends.

Changing Used Car Price Trends Have Consumers Anxious about Sales, Trade-ins (2024)

FAQs

Why do used car prices fluctuate? ›

Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, so you can often find deals on last year's models when new models are coming in (typically in the fall). As the calendar year ends, fewer models from the previous year will be available.

Has used car sales slowed down? ›

Cox is forecasting a 3% year-over-year hike in CPO sales this year, with sales projected at 2.7 million units. In the first month of 2024, however, certified sales were off to a slow start. Cox estimated in February that CPO sales for January were down 12% month-over-month and even with January 2023 figures.

Are car sales slowing down in 2024? ›

New vehicle sales in the U.S. rose nearly 5% in 2024 as buyers defied high interest rates, but EV sales growth slowed. New vehicle sales in the U.S. rose nearly 5% from January through March, as buyers stayed in the market despite high interest rates.

Are lower auto prices finally giving Americans a break after years of inflationary increases? ›

Lower auto prices are finally giving Americans a break after years of inflationary increases. Automobile prices, which had been fueling inflation in the U.S., are starting to drop, helping to slow overall consumer price increases and giving buyers hope of getting a deal.

Why are used cars so overpriced now? ›

I'll try to keep this as simple as possible. One of the many issues is that new vehicle prices have skyrocketed which affects the used prices. People can't afford new, so they need to buy used. Demand for used cars has gone WAY up which shortens the supply.

What is the best day of the year to buy a car? ›

Typically, the best holidays to buy a car are Christmas Eve, New Year's Eve, Memorial Day, and Black Friday.
  • New Year's Eve and Christmas Eve. If you can, hold out until New Year's Eve to buy a car. ...
  • Memorial Day Weekend. ...
  • Black Friday. ...
  • Labor Day. ...
  • Fourth of July. ...
  • Presidents Day.
May 27, 2024

What not to say to a car salesman? ›

Eliminating the following statements when you buy a car can help you negotiate a better deal.
  • 'I love this car! ' ...
  • 'I've got to have a monthly payment of $350. ' ...
  • 'My lease is up next week. ' ...
  • 'I want $10,000 for my trade-in, and I won't take a penny less. ' ...
  • 'I've been looking all over for this color. '
Feb 14, 2021

What is the best month to buy a used car? ›

Neiman said one of the best times to buy is at the beginning of the year. January and February are when dealers are trying to make room for newer inventory and consumers often desire to buy the next model-year vehicle.

Should you buy a car in 2024? ›

Experts say that 2024 will be the best year to purchase a new car since 2019. As interest rates slowly drop throughout the remainder of the year, payments will become more manageable. Don't overlook manufacturer rate promotions, as they can save you thousands of dollars.

Will car salesman be obsolete? ›

Gasoline-powered cars could soon start to disappear, but car dealers aren't going anywhere, in part because they're protected by strong franchise laws. Their business is changing fast, however, as car sales move online and electric vehicles get more popular.

Are auto sales declining? ›

From 2019 to 2023, the market averaged 15.2 million, lower by more than 12%. The reasons are clear and obvious: Notably, higher prices and higher loan rates have put a large number of shoppers on the sidelines, waiting for conditions to change.

What is the slowest time of year for car dealers? ›

January Comes After December

This is the top reason why January is the slowest month for car sales. It's not about the cold weather, but it all has something to do with the month before that – December. The last month of the year is the busiest, with the holiday season and many people go shopping.

What happens to used car prices during recession? ›

There may be a limited effect on the used car market

Production of new vehicles has increased in recent months, but there's little chance that a recession will affect the used car market much. In the past, recessions tended not to lead to a substantial fall in used car prices.

How much to put down on a 90k car? ›

The general rule of thumb is to put down at least 20% for a new car and 10% for a used car. But any size down payment can help lower your monthly payments and reduce the amount of interest you pay over the course of the loan.

Why are manufacturers not selling as many affordable sedans? ›

Having shifted their offerings along with consumer preference in recent years, U.S. automakers have largely stopped making the kind of cheap car that is now in higher demand, with car lineups from the Big Three Detroit automakers virtually devoid of the kind of small sedan and hatchback that was once considered ...

What is the best month to buy a car? ›

It turns out that some times are better than others to buy a car. Even though there often are sales on vehicles throughout the year, such as around Memorial Day and Labor Day, the final few months of the year — think October to December — is the real sweet spot for buying.

Is 2024 a good time to buy a used car? ›

Used car prices are dropping after skyrocketing during the pandemic due to lack of new car supply. Used car prices fell 7% in 2023, and 21% from December 2021 to December 2023, according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index.

Is it better to buy a car at the end of the month? ›

Year-end sales events, three-day holiday weekends, and the end of each month have traditionally been the best times to get great deals on a new car. These are the times when dealers look to clear inventory and meet sales quotas.

Do car prices go down over time? ›

Prices on new cars are expected to drop in 2024 as the industry moves beyond the supply-chain issues that pushed up auto prices during the pandemic, which will gradually ease the prices on used vehicles as well. That's welcome news for car shoppers who have faced record-high prices over the past couple of years.

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