Goldman Sachs CEO sees recession risk as more likely than his own economists do (2024)

David Solomon, the chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs. Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

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Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

Goldman Sachs CEO sees recession risk as more likely than his own economists do (2)

David Solomon, the chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs.

Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

For college grads who want to make money and live in New York City, landing a job at Goldman Sachs is a golden ticket. And it is still harder to get hired by Goldman than it is to get into Harvard University.

"This week, we have about 3,500 undergraduates who are starting their careers here," says CEO David Solomon, in an interview with NPR. "That's 3,500 out of over 300,000 people that applied for those jobs."

Something those new hires are sure to notice is that many of their colleagues are also young.

"Half our organization is in its 20s," says Solomon, who moonlights as DJ D-Sol. Next week, he will perform at Lollapalooza, alongside Dua Lipa, Doja Cat and Metallica. (Solomon notes he will donate his performance fee to charity, and he also plans to meet with clients in Chicago.)

David Solomon, who performs as DJ D-Sol, at the Fontainebleau Hotel in Miami Beach, Florida, on Feb. 1, 2020. Craig Barritt/Getty Images hide caption

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Goldman Sachs CEO sees recession risk as more likely than his own economists do (4)

David Solomon, who performs as DJ D-Sol, at the Fontainebleau Hotel in Miami Beach, Florida, on Feb. 1, 2020.

Craig Barritt/Getty Images

Since he became Goldman's CEO in 2018, Solomon has implemented some changes to the bank's culture, including a relaxed dress code and more flexibility when it comes to taking vacation days.

But early in the pandemic, Solomon drew a line in the sand, and he hasn't budged: Solomon does not want his employees to work from home, in their pajamas, in perpetuity. He believes they need to be in the office.

"They come to work at Goldman Sachs so they can be trained, they can be mentored, they can learn, they can grow," says Solomon. "And that just doesn't happen at the same velocity if they're not present, sharing the experience with others."

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Banking analysts who watch the bank's performance closely say that, as the business environment sours, Goldman's emphasis on in-person work is going to be an advantage, or at least a differentiator.

"The culture of Goldman is very important," says Gerard Cassidy, managing director of bank equity research at RBC Capital Markets. "It's an esprit de corps. It's eat what you kill. And it works very effectively. But it really has worked because of everybody being in the office."

It certainly ensures Goldman employees, especially the newer ones, get a deep understanding of business broadly. A wide range of clients from around the world, from governments and corporations, to institutions and individuals, seek the bank's advice.

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As the bank's CEO, Solomon has a bird's eye view of the global economy, and right now, he sees a lot of uncertainty.

The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates aggressively to fight high inflation, and while Goldman's in-house economists are betting there is a 50% chance of a recession in the next two years, Solomon fears the odds are worse.

"It doesn't preoccupy me, but I think the chance of a recession some time in the next 24 months is high," he says.

Goldman Sachs is taking steps to prepare for a deeper economic downturn. When it reported earnings for the second quarter on Monday, it said it has set aside $667 million to cover potential losses, and the company's CFO announced the bank plans to "slow hiring."

Mike Mayo, a banking analyst at Wells Fargo Securities, says the current market environment is especially difficult for Wall Street banks. This year, he notes, "we are experiencing the biggest decline in stocks and bonds in over 50 years."

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But according to Mayo, Goldman is able to move nimbly when circ*mstances change. "Goldman Sachs is the antithesis of the oil tanker analogy," he says.

This week, Solomon is headlining the 10,000 Small Businesses Summit in Washington. In response to a recent survey conducted by Goldman Sachs, 93% of small business owners who responded said they are worried about a recession in the next year.

Solomon says that being nimble and flexible is going to be the key for all businesses in the coming months, including his own.

He says what he admires most about the small business owners he will address is their optimism in the face of economic uncertainty.

"They are optimistic. They work hard. They are ambitious," he says. "They are fiercely independent in what they do."

Goldman Sachs headquarters in New York City. Spencer Platt/Getty Images hide caption

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Goldman Sachs CEO sees recession risk as more likely than his own economists do (9)

Goldman Sachs headquarters in New York City.

Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Goldman Sachs CEO sees recession risk as more likely than his own economists do (2024)

FAQs

What Goldman Sachs says about recession? ›

The US has an 85% chance of avoiding a recession in the next year, according to Jan Hatzius. The chief economist of Goldman Sachs pointed to resilient growth in the US economy. The odds of a recession have fallen to what they are any given year, he estimated.

What is the bad news about Goldman Sachs? ›

Despite the strong quarterly results, Goldman's earnings report finalized a few unfortunate annual milestones for the bank: Its $46.5 billion in sales marked its worst year since 2020 and its $8.52 billion in net income capped its least profitable year since 2019.

What is the controversy with Goldman Sachs? ›

The company has been criticized for lack of ethical standards, working with dictatorial regimes, close relationships with the U.S. federal government via a "revolving door" of former employees, and driving up prices of commodities through futures speculation.

Why does Goldman Sachs have a bad reputation? ›

In 1929 for example, Goldman sponsored a pyramid scheme disguised as a mutual fund, which collapsed causing 42,000 investors to lose $300 million. Then, in 1970, came the Penn Central catastrophe in which a default on short-term paper marketed by Goldman produced damage claims exceeding the bank's net worth.

What are CEOs saying about recession? ›

CEOs in both the United States and globally are bracing for a recession and elevated inflation. Despite these issues topping their worry list, just 37% of US CEOs say they are prepared for a recession, and 34% are prepared for high inflation, according to a survey from The Conference Board.

What bank CEO predicts recession? ›

The JPMorgan CEO, who forecasted an economic disaster in 2022 that never came, says a recession isn't “off the table”

What is Goldman Sachs CEO warning? ›

Goldman Sachs CEO warns inflation may prove 'stickier' than expected | Fox Business.

Is Goldman Sachs Marcus in trouble? ›

Financial Losses and Revised Strategy

With this, Marcus has become a significant burden for Goldman Sachs. The bank disclosed a $470 million loss related to the partial sale of the Marcus loans portfolio, contributing to an accumulated $3 billion in losses in its consumer banking franchise since 2020​​.

Is Goldman Sachs Marcus shutting down? ›

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is closing down its automated-investing business for the masses after clinching a deal with Betterment. The bank has struck an agreement to transfer clients and their assets from the unit known as Marcus Invest to Betterment, a $45 billion digital investment-advisory firm.

Why is Goldman Sachs declining? ›

That marked the eighth quarter in a row where Goldman reported a year-over-year profit decline. Shares fell 1.6%. The quarter's earnings reflect the financial hit that Goldman is experiencing as it narrows its ambitions—namely, pulling back from its once-trumpeted consumer-lending efforts.

Is Goldman Sachs struggling? ›

But for the full year, Goldman struggled. Investment banking fees were down 16% from 2022, and trading in commodities, currencies and fixed income was down 18%.

Is Goldman Sachs in decline? ›

The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Goldman Sachs in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is predicted to post an EPS of $8.57, indicating a 2.5% decline compared to the equivalent quarter last year.

Is Goldman Sachs under investigation? ›

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

GS is being investigated for fees that it charges for futures trading.

What is the latest scandal of Goldman Sachs? ›

Goldman in 2020 agreed to settle with the DoJ for $2.9 billion and its Malaysian unit pleaded guilty to a corruption charge. Tim Leissner, a former Goldman partner, pleaded guilty in 2018 to conspiring to launder money and violate an anti-bribery law, and agreed to cooperate with prosecutors.

What are the weaknesses of Goldman Sachs? ›

Even in the absence of a market downturn, we are exposed to substantial risk of loss due to market volatility.
  • We May Incur Significant Losses from Our Trading and Investment Activities Due to Market Fluctuations and Volatility. ...
  • Our Investment Banking Revenues May Decline in Adverse Market or Economic Conditions.

Does Goldman Sachs say no recession? ›

The US economy is nowhere near a recession, Goldman Sachs' top economist says. The soft landing that once looked nearly impossible for the Federal Reserve to pull off is still on track. That's the message from Jan Hatzius, the chief economist of Goldman Sachs.

Did Goldman Sachs cut the odds of a recession? ›

Sept 5 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Tuesday lowered its probability that a U.S recession would start in the next 12 months to 15% from an earlier 20% forecast. The continued positive inflation and labor market data led to the cut, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note.

What did Adam Smith say about recessions? ›

Adam Smith on the Main Cause of Recessions and Depressions: Bubbles Resulting From Bank Loans and Credit Made Available to Projectors, Imprudent Risk Takers and Prodigals.

What does Warren Buffett say about recessions? ›

As Buffett famously wrote in a 2008 op-ed for The New York Times: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” This essentially means that when others are fearful of investing money — like ahead of or during a recession — you should take advantage by scooping up stocks and other assets at ...

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